My Thoughts on the 2024 Presidential Election

Stop reading right now. You don't know who I'm going to vote for in the 2024 election. And I don't want to know who you are voting for. Politics is too toxic these days, and I don't want the first thought to come to your mind when you see my name to be, "oh, he's voting for Candidate X." Honestly there are more important things than politics. Like Star Wars. And Disney World.

Ok, so apparently you're still reading? Well, I tried to warn you.

The intention of this post is not to convince you who you should vote for. I don't wish to get into an argument or a debate with anyone. In fact, I don't really want to even discuss the election. For most people the decision is set in stone and it's fruitless to engage. I'd rather we all just get along.

So why am I writing this? Well, every four years, several people ask me who I'm voting for because they are genuinely interested in my opinion. And I want to be able to point them to where I have articulated the thought process that led to my decision.

Also, writing this post helps me formulate and understand my own opinions better.

OK, intro over. Now I'm going to tell you who I'm voting for.

>>STOP READING HERE<<

I'm voting for Kamala Harris. And I'm actually rather enthusiastic about it. To be perfectly honest, I don't understand why anyone is voting for Donald Trump. But then, those who are voting for Donald Trump probably don't understand how I could vote for Kamala Harris.

While I've done a large amount of research and read opinions, rebuttals, and rebuttals to the rebuttals from all sides, I admit that there is opportunity for bias to affect my vote. Everyone is exposed to different news stories; we live around different "tribes" who might impact our way of thinking; and we may value each factor higher or lower based on our life experience. We simply will never fully see eye to eye.

So instead, we must accept that everyone will make their own decision and respect each other as we take part in our democracy on our own terms. That's my intention. If you are voting for Donald Trump because you feel he will be the best person to represent you in Washington, more power to you.

In addition, I recognize that I am likely more moderate than the average Republican these days, so even if you agree with me about Donald Trump's character, perhaps you are unable to stomach the prospect of another four years of Democratic control in the White House. I get it. That's your choice to make.

A Character Election

This is NOT a policy election for me. This is a character election. I covered Donald Trump's character extensively in my blog post on the events leading to January 6th and in my blog post explaining why I was voting for Joe Biden in 2020. I did not vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 because I was worried he might be capable of something resembling January 6th. Then he confirmed my fears.

Let's be clear: Donald Trump was told repeatedly by his advisors that he had lost the election and that there was no evidence of widespread fraud on a scale sufficient to change the outcome through legitimate legal means. Nevertheless, he wanted to continue to be president past January 20, 2021. He took a series of discrete actions to achieve that objective. He failed largely due to pushback from a handful of state Republican leaders and Mike Pence's refusal to cooperate with the scheme. It disturbs me to imagine what would have happened if Trump had succeeded in clinging to power.

Donald Trump's refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election is unforgivable to me. While I wish him no ill will, I will never trust him with democratic power again. George Washington established the pattern in 1797 when he left office--the cardinal rule of the American presidency is to hand over power peacefully when your term is up. Everything else is secondary to that. Why should I care which valet is the better driver if I have legitimate reason to worry that one applicant will steal my car?

A Uniquely Toxic Cocktail of Traits

I recognize that there is a significant chance Donald Trump could be president again. And if he wins, it is entirely possible his second term will be tolerable and unremarkable--perhaps he could even do some good things and leave the world in a better place. It is my hope that if Trump wins another term, it's this first scenario that plays out.

But the reason I did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016 or 2020 was because he presents an unacceptable risk of an alternative future that is not so pretty. Donald Trump has a uniquely toxic cocktail of traits that make him unsuitable for the office of the presidency.

1) He has no sense of morality. 

Donald Trump's moral code seems to be egoism: "whatever is in my self interest is right."

This point was demonstrated perhaps most remarkably during his first impeachment trial in the Senate (over withholding aid to Ukraine in order to pressure them to investigate his presumed opponent, Joe Biden), when Trump's lawyers argued that he couldn't be impeached no matter what he did while seeking reelection, because his reelection was in the best interest of the public; therefore, it couldn't be self-serving.

All politicians are at least a little self-centered. But Donald Trump is simply off the charts.

2) He never takes any accountability for his actions.

Every president has made mistakes, and usually they offer an apology or show some degree of remorse, whether it was Bill Clinton admitting to his affair or Obama apologizing when the IRS was found to have targeted conservative non-profits.

But Donald Trump rarely admits fault, instead blaming everyone else but himself. He even doubles down on his errors, such as his bizarre criticism of veterans and prisoners of war. The only instance I could find of him apologizing is before the 2016 election when the infamous Access Hollywood tape came out--and nearly sank his campaign.

As a result of Trump's continued pushing of ethical boundaries, the standards of conduct and expectations for a president have fallen dramatically since Trump's arrival on the national stage. That's a tragedy.

3) He surrounds himself with sycophants.

Donald Trump demands loyalty to himself above all else. Anyone who has criticized him has either changed their tune or been branded as a RINO and exiled from the party. There is a long list of former Trump appointees and confidants who fell out of favor when they finally reached their ethical limit. 

No one is more prominent on that list than former Vice President Mike Pence, who was fiercely loyal to Trump throughout his first term. His only "sin" was refusing to overturn the election results in Congress, which he felt would have been unconstitutional. And for that, Trump's supporters chanted, "Hang Mike Pence!" At the very moment this was happening, Trump tweeted that Pence "didn't have the courage to do what should have been done." Now Pence is a pariah in the Republican Party.

One of the most corrupt acts Donald Trump ever attempted as president occurred a few days before January 6th, 2021, when--in a move taken straight from Richard Nixon's playbook--he tried to fire the acting attorney general Jeffrey Rosen and replace him with Jeff Clark, another justice department official who Trump believed would be more amenable to an unethical scheme to overturn the election. This change in leadership was stopped by the other senior justice department officials who threatened to resign if Trump did so.

Darwin will tell you what happens when you consistently select for loyalty over integrity and character. The pool of principled Republicans who are available to serve in a second Trump White House is vanishingly small.

4) The Republican Party refuses to keep him in line.

One of the (few) good things about having a strong party system is when presidents have moments of extremism, party officials can reel in their leader and help them see reason. Unfortunately, the Republican Party is no longer autonomous and is incapable of putting guardrails on Donald Trump's impulses. Instead, the party is an extension of the Trump campaign.

During Trump's two impeachment proceedings, most Republicans in the Senate refused to convict Donald Trump, even while speaking out against his actions. The 7 Republican Senators, as well as the 50 Democrats and independents, who voted to convict in February 2021 for his actions on January 6th deserve credit. However, an additional 13 Republican Senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, condemned Trump's actions but argued that since he was no longer president, he couldn't be convicted by the Senate. Another 19 refused to comment on his actions citing the technicality of him no longer being president. Only 11 defended Trump.

In essence, they acquitted him on a technicality that could have been overcome by holding the trial three weeks earlier, a decision which McConnell himself made. If only these senators had had the courage to convict Trump, he likely would have been disqualified from seeking office and voters wouldn't be in this predicament.

5) His voters have allegiance to him above all else.

Donald Trump famously said he could he "could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and [he] wouldn't lose any voters." I think most of us understand now that he was right, at least as it relates to his core supporters. Somehow, Trump has been able to turn every scandal into a Teflon shell.

Many of our presidents have achieved "rock star" status that transcends party or policy preferences. Modern examples include Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama. In some ways, each of these presidents has earned respect and reverence. But in other ways the tenure of these presidents was a precarious moment in domestic politics, because if their whims had carried them in authoritarian directions, it would have been difficult to stop them because of the populist support they enjoyed. As it so happens, each of them made serious mistakes that were deserving of critique and correction.

What Makes Donald Trump Different

Every president has checked one or two of these boxes. Some are egoists; some reach celebrity status. But only Donald Trump has exhibited all five of these characteristics to such a strong degree. He alone has been enabled by his advisors, his party, and his supporters to pursue his most base instincts without a meaningful check.

The Issues

I've said why I'm not voting for Donald Trump, but why am I voting for Kamala Harris?

In short, I have a favorable impression of her from what I've read and seen. I recognize that I am more moderate than the average Republican-leaning voter, so others may not agree with my assessment. But that's the honest truth.

While this election isn't about policy for me, I do have policy preferences. And thankfully I feel satisfied that at the very least, things won't get significantly worse under a hypothetical President Harris, and might even get better on the metrics I care most about.

Ukraine

If Donald Trump weren't on the ballot, my top issue this election would be Ukraine--specifically, supporting Ukraine in their fight to protect their independence and sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression. 

To put it succinctly: Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in an illegal war of aggression. Their goal is to annex at least part of Ukrainian territory and install a puppet regime in Kyiv. They failed at the second part, but they have not stopped trying to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible. The consequences if they succeed are far-reaching, and could result in further aggression by Russia, as well as other world bullies who are watching events unfold with intense interest.

My favorite candidate in the primaries, particularly as it relates to Ukraine, was Nikki Haley, and I would have voted for her enthusiastically if she had been the Republican nominee. But alas ...

However, I was impressed by Kamala Harris's comments on Ukraine in the debate and when meeting with President Zelenskyy. I believe she will be better for Ukraine than Donald Trump would be, and hopefully stronger than Biden has been. Trump has been very cryptic about what he would do if he were president with respect to Ukraine. But two things he has done repeatedly are 1) praise Putin and 2) said he would end the war in 24 hours.

How would he end the war in 24 hours? We are left to guess. But Donald Trump Jr. has said he believes Trump would force Zelenskyy to "negotiate" by taking away funding, which would likely result in Ukraine losing a significant amount of territory. JD Vance stated that Ukraine would likely be denied entry into NATO as part of a deal.

Now, whether Ukraine ever gives up territory for peace is their decision, but it's certainly not something the United States should lead off with if we are trying to negotiate from a position of strength. Meanwhile, not admitting Ukraine into NATO will enable Russia to invade again someday once they have time to regroup and rearm. The ONLY way to permanently stop the war is if Ukraine is admitted to NATO. Period. That should be the starting point for our negotiations. I'm wary of anyone who doesn't recognize that.

The Economy & Taxes

The economy is currently in good shape. Despite high inflation in 2022, inflation is back to the target rate, GDP growth continues, the stock market has recently reached record highs, and interest rates are finally being lowered by the Federal Reserve. Some of Kamala Harris's proposed policies will help keep this economy strong, like continued investment in infrastructure. Others would strain the economy and I hope they don't pass, like corporate tax rate hikes and unrealized gain taxes. The good news is that even if Harris wins the presidency, the Senate will likely be controlled by Republicans. Even a Democratic Senate would be skeptical of the more outlandish proposals, especially given the likely thin margins of control.

Meanwhile, Trump's plan includes high tariffs (which in the short term would essentially act like an exorbitant sales tax passed on to consumers) and mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, which would exacerbate the labor shortage and drive up inflation. So I don't take it for granted that Trump would necessarily be better for the economy.

Historically, the best combination for the economy has been a Democratic president and a Republican Congress. History doesn't always predict the future, but I think having divided control could bode well for the economy and force the two sides to compromise on other divisive issues.

Illegal Immigration

I believe immigration should be an orderly process and that those who immigrate to America should pay their fair share of taxes. However, I think legal immigration should be significantly expanded and the process streamlined so that people aren't waiting for years to gain entry. I believe mass deportation, especially when dividing families that have been living in the United States for years, is inhumane. Only violent criminals or those found guilty of certain felonies should be deported. Anyone else identified as undocumented should be granted some level of legal status and required to pay any applicable penalties.

Kamala Harris essentially shares my view, and she was in favor of the bipartisan bill that was ready to be passed by the Senate earlier this year before being killed by Republicans under orders from Donald Trump. According to multiple Republican senators, Trump wanted to be able to campaign on the issue and he didn't want Biden to have a victory. (Yet another example of Trump's egoism.)

Abortion

I have nuanced views about abortion, but suffice it to say that I am more pro-life than Kamala Harris. Thankfully, Harris will have very little to do with abortion policy given that the Supreme Court's recent decision overturning Roe v. Wade has delegated the issue to the states. It is unlikely Congress (regardless of which party is in control) will pass any nationwide abortion legislation given the small margins of control in both chambers and the divisive nature of the issue.

Since the Supreme Court is currently controlled 6-3 by conservatives, and the next vacancy will most likely be liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor or conservative Clarence Thomas, at worst the balance could shift to a 5-4 conservative majority in a single Democratic term. However, with a likely Republican senate, it will be difficult for a truly liberal justice to be confirmed.

Personally I think a 5-4 balance is ideal. Having the court stacked too heavily in either direction results in extreme decisions that erode trust in the court.

The Second Amendment

I align with Kamala Harris's gun policy, which is that she supports the second amendment but believes that assault-style weapons should be banned (similar to the ban that was in place from 1994-2004), and that there should be universal background checks and red flag laws. I think those are reasonable measures to decrease the occurrence of mass shootings in schools and other public places, which have become shamefully common. Just because we can't eliminate mass shootings doesn't mean more can't be done to decrease their frequency.

Conclusion

I'm voting for Kamala Harris because I don't trust Donald Trump with another term. I don't expect to agree with everything Harris does, but there is a decent chance our country would continue to be prosperous under her leadership. The risks and rewards for a potential Trump presidency would be much more volatile and unpredictable.

If you are planning to vote for Donald Trump, my one request is to hold him accountable. Don't support him unquestioningly. Please do your part to restrain him from his impulses and excesses. At the end of the day, we are all Americans and we want the same things: a free, prosperous, and safe place to raise our families.

In four years, Trump will be out of the picture one way or another. I am optimistic that the Republican Party can put forward a new generation of hopeful, inspiring candidates. I look forward to the day when I can once again, in good conscience, vote for a Republican candidate for the nation's highest office.

Restoring Trust in Our Elections By Accepting The Results

Introduction

I didn't want to write about the election. It's a very difficult topic to address given the barrage of conspiracy theories and misinformation. And addressing even one question could take more analysis than I could fit into a single blog post. But understanding the current moment in our national politics requires a clear understanding of what happened and what is at stake.

Let me start by saying that I have no quarrel with the 74 million people who voted for Trump in 2020. Many of them are police officers, military veterans, firefighters, doctors, nurses, and others who would not hesitate to protect me and my family if we faced any dangers or needed care.

Also, I have no ill will for President Trump. I hope he and his family live a happy, peaceful life in Florida. While I personally feel his actions warrant being barred from future office, I believe it is much more important for our country to recognize the peril that we have all collectively placed our Republic in so that we can prevent this from happening ever again. 

Trust in Our Institutions

Our institutions are built on trust. A good example of this is currency. Most people know that the "almighty dollar" is no longer backed by gold or silver. Its value is protected by the collective trust of the citizens of our country, and our neighbors around the world, that the dollar will continue to be accepted as "legal tender for all debts, public and private." You accept a dollar from me at your restaurant because you can go and use that dollar to buy milk at a grocery store - or to pay your taxes to the IRS. 

Likewise, our election system is built on trust. For almost 250 years, our Republic has thrived and persisted thanks to a high level of trust in our institutions. Politicians from every party and office have accepted the results of our elections, with few exceptions. This despite fraud and errors at times being quite rampant. Many times, losers have challenged the results in courts. But once these disputes were resolved, a peaceful transfer of power has been the hallmark of American democracy.

As I will explain further below, President Trump's behavior since the Electoral College certified the results on December 14th was much like the moment in Mary Poppins when Mr. Dawes grabs Michael's tuppence, thus causing a run on the bank. It was the equivalent to the IRS announcing that they would no longer be accepting US Dollars for tax payments. As a trusted authority figure to many, by his persistence in claiming the election was rigged, Trump has eroded trust in our elections more than any actual instance of fraud could. Now we're all left with an electoral system that is more secure than it has ever been, but which is now devalued in the eyes of some voters. It may be too late to ever fully undo the damage.

Our currency is subject to counterfeit, just like there is always some degree of fraud in our elections. And as with our currency, our elections already have many intense security measures in place to curb that fraud, making it exceedingly rare. Thus, the solution to deteriorated trust in our elections is not necessarily to have less fraud - it's for there to be fewer baseless claims of fraud. And just as we all accept currency for our everyday transactions, each of us, especially those in positions of authority, must accept the results of our elections.

Mob Justice is Not Justice

While his unwillingness to commit to a peaceful transfer of power was troubling, Trump had every right to pursue legal challenges, which he did. He lost 61 of 62 court cases, including many brought before Republican and Trump appointee judges and even the 6-3 conservative Supreme Court. The single win was inconsequential to the result. While some of these cases were dismissed for lack of standing, many involved evidence presented which simply wasn't convincing or sufficiently consequential to the results.

President Trump and his legal team failed to convince a judge that there was any substantial fraud, so they decided to air their grievances on a video feed and present their "evidence" directly to the public in a session with a committee of the Michigan legislature. With no judge to adjudicate the evidence presented, they were able to say anything they wanted to with no consequence - none of the "witnesses" were under oath. To call this a "hearing" is an insult to our justice system. It was unethical and immoral. 

It was likewise unethical for President Trump to repeat these same claims in front of a frenzied crowd on the Ellipse on January 6th. In these venues, Trump and his surrogates could make false and speculative claims, sprinkled with some truth, with no accountability and without the ability for those he incriminated to defend themselves or to address the so-called discrepancies his team had compiled. 

The place to put forward evidence is in a court. Period.

Imagine if our criminal justice system worked that way. Imagine if Marcia Clark, the prosecutor in the O.J. Simpson case, had left the courtroom after failing to convict Simpson of two murders, and then stood in front of a large crowd and said, "We failed in the courtroom, so here is all the evidence we weren't allowed to or failed to present there. Here are some other rumors and speculations. We will never give up, we will never concede. Now march down to O.J.'s house and peacefully demand justice." 

What would that crowd be expected to do with these instructions? There was no more recourse for official government response - O.J.'s trial was definitive under the 5th Amendment's restriction on double jeopardy. If the mob had taken the cue and committed an act of vigilantism, that would not have been just, even if, as most observers believe, O.J. was guilty.

Likewise, while I hope President Trump had no intention of inciting violence on January 6th, he ought to have known that his words could have that effect. No other president or presidential candidate in modern history has done or would have done what Trump did. 

Trust in the Process

Even Richard Nixon respected the process enough to concede when John F. Kennedy won in 1960, despite actual concerns that the result in Illinois had been manipulated by the mafia and other bad actors. Despite the potential irregularities, Nixon told a journalist friend, "our country cannot afford the agony of a constitutional crisis." Nixon, widely regarded as one of the most corrupt presidents we've ever had, also later resigned rather than remain an embattled president. This is what people who care more about the stability and longevity of our Republic than their own political ambition do (even if just barely).

Because it's the "Process" of the election that we honor - not the actual "will of the people" that exists in their unexpressed minds. We can't know what every voter is thinking or believes in their hearts. So we rely on ballots, poll workers, counting machines, auditors, county recorders, partisan observers, campaign observers, legal challenges, judges, appeals courts, state legislatures, secretaries of state, and ultimately, The Supreme Court, if needed, to ascertain the will of the people. 

We honor and respect that Process enough to accept the certified results and even the presumed results when we have enough data to project what the outcome will be. That's why Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney and John Kerry and others conceded hours after the polls closed in their respective elections.

I don't mean to imply that Donald Trump is the only one responsible for eroding trust in our elections. Barbara Boxer's objection to the results in 2004 and other House Democrats' objections in 2016 gave cover to Republicans in 2020. The difference in those instances was that the candidates themselves did not entertain the charade. However, I am much less interested in laying blame than I am in bringing light to the damage such actions have so we don't allow the same mistakes to be made again.

Electoral Fraud

There are always instances of fraud and errors in every election. Some people fill out ballots of their deceased relatives whose registration was inadvertently left open. Some ballots are unknowingly lost in the mail, misplaced, or damaged. Clerks and machines make tabulation errors.

The question is whether there is evidence that such fraud or error was 1) systematic favoring one candidate and 2) sufficient to affect the result of the election.

Most candidates concede within the first night of results being reported because usually our elections are not close enough for both 1) and 2) to be true. The burden of proof is on the candidate who is alleging fraud.  

Continuous improvements are welcome. We can always make a more secure, efficient, and convenient voting system. Think of how far we've come since 1788! But it will never be perfect. Once the election has occurred, we have to accept the results and challenge only within the prescribed process. Any desired changes to the process will need to be implemented for the next election - not retroactively. 

It's worth noting that our system does tend to eventually get things right. O.J. later served 9 years in prison for unrelated crimes. Richard Nixon was eventually elected president (and then resigned). If a massive fraud is later discovered which somehow affected vote tallies in multiple swing states with completely different voting systems and rules to the tune of tens of thousands of votes, there are mechanisms to address such fraud.

But without evidence - presented and tried in court - claims of massive fraud are just naked erosions of public trust.

Trust Goes Both Ways

There's a line from the Star Wars film Rogue One where Jyn Erso says, "Trust goes both ways." What Jyn meant by that is if you exhibit trust in those you deal with, they will likewise show trust in return. There's a trope in action films where the good guys and bad guys are in a standoff with guns drawn, and then the good guy convinces everyone to let cooler heads prevail, extending an olive branch by putting his own weapon down. Everyone else follows his lead. 

Put another way, when we put our trust in others, they become more trustworthy.

To go back to another "run on the bank" analogy, consider how George Bailey resolved the run on his Savings & Loan in It's a Wonderful Life. He shelled out cash to his customers from his own honeymoon fund as a show of trust. And in return, his customers agreed to keep their deposits in place. 

Our society functions on this type of trust. When we walk down the street, we trust that those we pass by will not stab us or grab our purse or wallet. When we drive, we trust that others won't intentionally crash into us. When we travel, we trust that the pilots of our airplanes are well trained and sober. When we get surgery, we trust that our doctor is competent and qualified. 

Ronald Reagan famously quoted the saying, "Trust but verify." There is nothing wrong with taking reasonable precautions when dealing with those whose interests are not in line with ours, but ultimately, the "trust" part is more important than the "verify." We have to be able to trust that others we share the world with are acting in good faith. 

Sometimes we get burned by trusting, and seeking justice for those who betray our trust is an important step to maintaining it. But in order to return to our normal lives, we have to learn to trust again and remember that not everyone is like the criminal who wronged us.

As citizens of the United States, we have to trust our poll workers, vote counters, county recorders, and auditors the same way we trust our doctors, pilots, and chefs. We need to keep our deposits of trust in the "bank" of our elections. We can rest assured that there are checks and balances, audit trails, and verifications in place to catch those who would betray that trust. 

We can't allow extremists on either side to erode trust in broad swaths of the population. I firmly believe that Democrats and Republicans, Americans of all genders, races, religions, and ethnicities, share a goal of a peaceful and prosperous society governed by the rule of law. 

Addendum: The 2020 Election

Now I've said what I wanted to say. 

But I understand that many people are nevertheless concerned about fraud in the 2020 election, so I will attempt to address some of the specific allegations directly. Others have attempted to do this more comprehensively, but I will cover at a high level. 

Joe Biden won the 2020 election by a margin of 7 million popular votes (4.5%), and 74 electoral votes. Trump would have needed to win at least 3 additional states (Georgia, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania) to win the election either outright or through an Electoral College tie settled by a Republican-favored House Contingent vote (where each state's delegation casts a single vote). 

Every state conducted its election in accordance with standards implemented by their respective legislatures (note that the state legislatures of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all controlled by Republicans). This includes restrictions on registration (for example, in Arizona, you must have a valid Arizona address - no P.O. boxes allowed), testing of vote counting machines with bipartisan oversight, precinct poll measures (poll workers at each site must represent different political parties), counting of results (early ballot counters are from a bipartisan team; observers from all major parties, plus additional observers from each campaign; live video feed of ballot counting), resolving ballots that were not properly filled out (review by bipartisan team); post-election audits (sample of ballots traced from electronic tabulation of results to paper ballots); and recounts, as in Georgia, where ballots were recounted twice with minimal changes to the results each time.

Here's an article detailing the vote counting process in my home state of Arizona. 

I listened to many of the arguments made by Trump and his legal team, and found them to be seriously flawed. For example, it was often repeated that there were "more votes than voters" in some jurisdictions. I sampled a couple of the states they were talking about and was easily able to confirm, based on publicly available registration records, that these statements were completely false. (Often their statements used stale data to lend an air of credibility to their claims.) 

Claims were also made that ballot "dumps" added to Biden's margin. I have watched election results for my entire adult life and every single time, when results from an urban precinct come in, the total for the Democrat always goes up precipitously while the Republican's vote total barely changes. 

That's because, as everyone who knows a lick about politics is aware, black voters overwhelming vote for Democrats. In a city like Philadelphia, for example, where whites are a minority, it is no surprise to see a precinct in the inner city to report 90% - 10% for Biden. Nor is it a surprise to see a large batch of votes all reported from such a precinct at the same time late at night when rural precincts have already reported. Urban precincts are more densely populated and so counting takes more time.

Nor was it unexpected for mail-in ballots (which Trump discouraged his voters to use) to come in overwhelmingly for Biden, a phenomenon which was widely reported in the weeks leading up to the election. Here's an article from October explaining how the results in Pennsylvania would flip overnight as mail-in ballots were opened, verified, and counted.

If you aren't convinced by the actual certified votes which were upheld by the courts, just consider from a high level whether the results make sense. Donald Trump narrowly won in 2016 by a margin of 80,000 votes in 3 states (MI, WI, and PA) in a country of 340 million people against the most unpopular candidate in our lifetimes up to that point. All Biden needed to do to win was convince 80,000 non-Clinton voters, barely enough people to fill a stadium, to vote for him (keep in mind that Trump 2016 voters count double since it both takes away one vote from Trump and adds to Biden).

Yes, Trump convinced a lot more people to vote for him this time - 74 million votes in 2020 vs. 63 million in 2016. That can largely be explained by the rise of mail-in ballots (which made it far easier to vote) and population growth, as well as the high stakes of the election for both sides. Trump made some inroads with certain Hispanic and black voters, but still lost both groups by wide margins. Ultimately, Biden's win came from shifts in white college-educated voters from Trump / third-party in 2016 to Biden in 2020. 

Voters exactly like me. Many, many of my friends, colleagues, and acquaintances have reached out to me publicly and privately affirming that they did the same thing. It shouldn't be hard to believe that Biden, a benign and boring career politician, could do just a hair better than Clinton.

If you look at the certified results by state, you will see that Biden did on average 2.35% better than Clinton. All he needed was a fraction of that to win (in 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania, the tipping point state, by 0.7%). There were only a handful of states where Trump did better in 2020 than in 2016 - states with large Hispanic / Asian populations (HI, CA, FL, NV), which are groups Trump made inroads with; Clinton's original home state of Arkansas (a home-state bump is a well known phenomenon); and Utah, a state that had a strong anti-Trump attitude in 2016 that caused a large 3rd party vote (2.5%) that swung back to Trump in 2020. 

In every other state (44 out of 50), Biden improved by an average of 2-3 points, in some cases as much as 6-7%. That includes Republican strongholds like Alabama (2.3%), Idaho (1.0%), Indiana (3.1%), Kentucky (3.9%), and Texas (3.4%). These results are perfectly consistent with Biden's performance nationwide. Unless you think that a widescale fraud was perpetrated on the presidential ballot of 44 independently run electoral systems, the 2% average swing toward Biden nationally and in the swing states is supported by the preponderance of evidence.

In short, Biden won. It's as simple as that.

If you are still concerned about electoral fraud in your state, please write to your state legislators. They are the ones charged by the Constitution (Article II Section 1) with running your elections, and they alone have the power to introduce additional safeguards for future elections.

Why I, a Lifelong Republican, am Voting for Joe Biden

Introduction

I’ll cut to the chase: I’m voting for Joe Biden for president of the United States.

I can not in good conscience vote for Donald Trump. In 2016, I voted for a third-party candidate (Evan McMullin). In 2020, for the first time in my life, I am going to cast my ballot for a Democrat for a federal office.

I will not be hyperbolic or unnecessarily critical of Donald Trump. We’ve all lived through the last four years together – we all know what President Trump has done, for better (and I do believe he has done many things that have made our country better) and for worse.

By the same token, everyone knows Joe Biden, and if you don’t like him, I won’t be able to convince you otherwise. He’s a politician, and all politicians have done things that could be construed as unethical or unsavory. I can’t and won’t defend everything Joe Biden has ever done.

Ultimately, either Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be our next president (I’d love for a third-party candidate to have a shot, but unfortunately our system isn’t built for that right now). After attentively watching President Trump’s words and actions over the past four years, and carefully weighing the options before us, I have come to the conclusion that, in my judgment, Joe Biden is more suited to the office and deserves my vote.

The Point

So if I’m not going to convince anyone, why am I bothering to write this post? I suppose my goal is to signal to other independent-minded Republicans, moderates, independents, and conservatives that someone you know who considers themselves a Republican is going to vote for Biden.

I know there are others out there who, like me, are discouraged by the state of our politics. Maybe we don’t agree on all issues or even share the same values, but we know we can do better. We can find a middle path through unity and harmony that can bring greater prosperity to all Americans.

Why Biden 

As the Democratic primary unfolded over the last year, there were several good candidates that I could have found myself supporting. There were also a few that I would have struggled to vote for due to their extreme policy positions.

Thankfully, Democrats knew that no ambitious policy proposal or agenda was more important than a return to civility and unity. At the end of the day, they set aside their dream candidates and chose a good and decent man who all Americans could accept and be proud to call their president. Many of my progressive friends were sorely disappointed in this result, but I believe it will be for the best for our country that Joe Biden is the nominee and am grateful the primary electorate made this tough choice.

Joe Biden has been in politics for a very long time. He is a Democrat from an era when Democrats and Republicans really weren’t all that different, and where they worked together to enact common sense and reasonable legislation.

Joe Biden is a man of faith. He doesn’t scoff at religious Americans or dismiss their legitimate concerns on issues like abortion. He understands the struggles working class Americans face, but isn’t advocating for an extreme agenda. He wants to strengthen Obamacare but not replace it with a single-payer system; he wants justice reform, but condemns rioting and violence; he will work to protect the environment, but has not embraced unrealistic proposals like the Green New Deal.

Kamala Harris similarly is quite moderate. If you’re concerned about the VP becoming president (a legitimate concern given Biden’s age), look into Harris’s actual expressed views and not just at one metric. For example, as a former prosecutor, she understands the importance of enforcing the law, but also knows how to do so equitably. In the primary, she supported a public option for healthcare, but did not support eliminating private insurance.

Also remember that all legislation must pass through Congress, so it will be much easier to safeguard whatever it is you’re hoping to achieve by voting for (and lobbying) your preferred House and Senate candidates than worrying about the president. I actually think Republicans would be better off advocating for a split ticket with a Democratic president and a Republican Senate than tying the Senate’s fate to Trump.

If we don’t like the way things go after this election, it’s comforting to know that another one is coming in just two years, with another presidential election just two years after that. I’ve lived long enough to know that nothing in politics is permanent.

To sum it all up, my vote for Joe Biden is an endorsement of the idea best expressed by Biden himself:

“When I first ran for Senate, we put up a billboard that said, ‘Joe Biden: For all our families.’ It’s a motto that has guided me throughout my career. It doesn’t matter if you’re a Democrat or Republican—I’ll be a president for all Americans, not just the ones who vote for me.”

Why Not Trump?

President Trump has done some good things. Those successes and victories are frequently overlooked, and Trump is often treated unfairly. I believe it’s very important to acknowledge the good, because bias and inequity leads to mistrust, which in turn leads to some otherwise constructive voices being ignored.

Specifically, I believe the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was a net positive for the country (personally I would have closed more loopholes for the wealthy while lowering the rates, but what we got was better than what we had before). Without these cuts, I’m not sure our economy would have been so robust in the pre-pandemic period, or had the agility to recover now and into the future.

Secondly, Trump has had some foreign policy successes. The recent peace deals between UAE and Bahrain and Israel are good examples. And while we haven’t quite resolved anything with North Korea, the fact that Trump himself met with Kim Jong Un is remarkable and unequivocally positive.

However, my opposition to President Trump comes down to the following:

1) He lacks integrity. 

• Trump has focused more on his own re-election than the interests of our country. Whether it was asking the Ukrainians to investigate his most likely Democratic rival, minimizing the pandemic with the hope of buoying the stock market, or undermining public trust in the election process, Trump has repeatedly engaged in inappropriate or unethical practices, even after being investigated for doing so in 2016.
• Trump has surrounded himself with unethical people, many of whom have been indicted or sentenced to prison for their crimes
• Trump has admitted to sexual misconduct, including grabbing women’s genitals without their permission, kissing without consent, and walking into dressing rooms where women were unclothed.

2) He does not attempt to unite the country

• At a time when we need a president who can truly inspire and lead us, help us find common ground, and move forward to rebuild after being hit with disasters of all kinds, Trump has repeatedly been drawn into petty feuds with rivals rather than simply projecting an aura of hope and strength, as a good leader would do.

I know some people think policy overcomes these concerns, but I can’t help but think of the wisdom from Jesus himself in Matthew 16:26:

For what is a man profited, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul? or what shall a man give in exchange for his soul?

Donald Trump is the soul of the Republican Party right now. If Republicans vote against him in 2020, yes, we’ll have four years of Democratic control of the policy agenda. But maybe four years from now we can vote for someone who can support the same or similar policies as Trump, but who has integrity and compassion, and who can unite all Americans. There are bright young Republicans out there who fit the bill. I sincerely believe that conservative ideals would be better served in the long term by losing just this once.

If the polls are close to accurate, Donald Trump will lose on November 3^rd. But wouldn’t it be better to send a message, by voting overwhelmingly for Joe Biden, that Republicans, too, reject division and dishonor? 

I grew up in the era of Bill Clinton and his impeachment scandal, and it was instilled in me at a young age that honor and integrity were the most important traits of any president. It appears that sentiment has fallen out of favor, but I still believe it.

Why I’m Still a Republican

After reading this post, you may be wondering if I’m truly still conservative, and why I bother referring to myself as a Republican.

To be honest, I have become more moderate in recent years, and the Trump presidency in many ways has facilitated that drift. I no longer feel the need to defend everything the leader of my party does. I recognize that there are good ideas on both sides of the aisle, and that life is too complicated to presume that one ideology can perfectly explain and solve all of the world’s problems.

And yet, I’m still a Republican because, among other things, I believe that business is a good thing – that industry and commerce provide virtually all of the goods and services we consume, all our household income, and all our tax revenue. Antagonizing business is a dangerous attitude if our goal is a prosperous society.

I believe abortion is not an amoral act. While I believe it would be a mistake to overturn Roe v. Wade, I believe the number of abortions should be reduced through proper education, availability of contraception, more aggressive prosecution of rape, increasing the affordability of adoption, and good old-fashioned persuasion.

I believe there are limits to what the government can and should do. For every voice that calls out for help to address a legitimate need, there needs to be someone willing to ask whether we can afford it. Unfortunately, resources are not infinite and so difficult choices must sometimes be made.

The country deserves two strong parties that appeal to all Americans. I will continue to advocate for a better Republican party so that every American can feel like they have a choice when they go to the ballot box.

A Parting Note

When we wake up on November 4^th (or whatever date it is when a winner is finally declared), the 40% of Americans who fundamentally disagree with you will not disappear. We will still need to work together to solve the challenges that face us. Those 40% are not evil – they just have different ideas on how to move forward. (Any ideology that teaches that 40% of Americans are evil is completely meaningless and impractical, even if, in some sort of absolute sense, you were right in that assessment.)

If we are going to truly move forward as a country, we need to change the nature of our political discourse in this country. Too much attention is focused on the fringes – the extremes.

For example, there may be 3% of Americans on the left who want violent anarchy; and maybe 3% on the right who believe in militant white supremacy. And yet, how much airtime is devoted to these topics on television, podcasts, and social media? We allow pundits and commentators on the opposite side to draw unfair generalizations of an entire party based on the radical views of its most extreme adherents. And in turn, the pundits and commentators on our side foolishly legitimize such attacks by seemingly defending these bad actors. These are the pitfalls of a two-party system. 

A vast majority of Americans reject both extremes. Most of us live somewhere in the middle. We want robust infrastructure, good schools, and quality healthcare. We want equitable and even-handed law enforcement. We want a fair distribution of the tax burden. We want a strong and agile military that is rarely called upon.

And most importantly, we want our politicians to work together to get things done on behalf of the American people. Sometimes this will require compromise, but compromise is not a dirty word. It’s the only way to successfully run a diverse country comprised of people who often disagree.

Electing Joe Biden will not solve all of the nation’s problems. But on November 3rd, voting for Biden will be one step in the direction of restoring honor to the White House and moving forward with civility and unity to face them.